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民间融资市场在经济发展的过程中具有举足轻重的作用,然而由于其处于金融监管的“灰色地带”的特殊性质,使风险爆发成为了健康发展的隐患。因此,需要建立一套切实可行的融资风险监测体系实现对民间金融风险的实时监控。本文从利率风险、规模风险、信用风险三个角度出发构建了地区性民间金融风险指数监测的指标体系,并分析了各指标数值的设定依据;再利用层次分析法分析指标权重,构建了民间金融风险指数综合评价模型;最后,通过分析指标在平衡市场与风险市场下的波动状态,给出了各指标不同数值下的所对应的检测状态区域,为分析风险的形成提供理论支持。
The private financing market plays a decisive role in the economic development. However, due to its special nature of “gray area” of financial supervision, the risk exposure has become a hidden danger to healthy development. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a set of feasible financing risk monitoring system to realize real-time monitoring of private financial risks. This paper constructs the index system of regional civil financial risk index monitoring from three aspects of interest rate risk, scale risk and credit risk, and analyzes the setting basis of each index value; analyzes the index weight by AHP, Finally, by analyzing the fluctuation status of the index under the equilibrium market and the risk market, the corresponding detection status regions under different values of each index are given, which provides theoretical support for the formation of risk analysis.