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分析了2015年中国猪肉生产、供应、消费和贸易情况,总结归纳了生猪产品市场价格走势的特点和影响因素。2015年上半年猪肉供应总体略偏紧,生猪价格淡季不淡,下半年猪粮比价攀升,盈利状况改善。虽然15年贸易保护期结束后,猪肉进口量的增加以及消费提振有限将会在一定程度上打压猪肉价格,但受能繁母猪存栏连续下降影响,2016年生猪和猪肉供应量将下滑,猪肉价格将有所上涨。
The status of pork production, supply, consumption and trade in China in 2015 was analyzed. The characteristics and influencing factors of the market price of pig products were summarized. In the first half of 2015, the pork supply in general was slightly tight. Live hog prices were not off-season in the off-season. Hog prices rose in the second half and profitability improved. Although the increase of pork import volume and the limited consumption boost after the 15-year trade protection period will suppress the pork price to a certain extent, the supply of live pigs and pork will decline in 2016 due to the continuous decline of the breeding sow population. Pork prices will rise.