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以Hakkio&Rush(1991)和Husted(1992)的跨期模型为基础,本文研究了1990年到2010年中国经常账户的可持续性。利用实际进出口值,通过Johansen协整检验,本文发现在整个样本期间中国的实际进出口之间不存在协整关系,即经常账户不满足跨期预算约束条件。考虑到可能存在的结构断点(struc-ture break),本文利用Gregory&Hansen(1996)结构断点检验方法,发现自2005年第2季度起,中国的进出口时间序列显现协整关系。这表明自2005年第2季度起,中国的进出口向可持续性调整。这是2005年人民币汇率形成机制改革的结果。
Based on the intertemporal model of Hakkio & Rush (1991) and Husted (1992), this paper examines the sustainability of China’s current account from 1990 to 2010. Using the actual value of imports and exports, through the Johansen cointegration test, this paper finds that there is no cointegration relationship between the actual import and export of China during the whole sample, that is, the current account does not meet the intertemporal budget constraints. Taking into account the possible struc-ture break, this paper uses the break-point test of Gregory & Hansen (1996) to find the cointegration relationship of China’s import and export time series since the second quarter of 2005. This shows that since the second quarter of 2005, China’s import and export have been adjusted toward sustainability. This is the result of the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in 2005.