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将系统动力学理论应用于区域综合货运系统与经济发展的相互影响定量分析中,通过分析货运供需系统因果关系,研究货运需求、货运缺口、经济发展、运输投资等系统影响因素之间的反馈环路。在此基础上建立系统流图,构建货运系统与区域经济互动关系系统动力学模型。通过仿真试验,分析了运输投资比例、产业结构等与货运生成总量及货运缺口之间的定量关系。结果表明,运输基础设施投资比例的提高,能有效改善货运供给能力的不足,使得货运缺口减小,促进经济的增长;第1、2产业对于货运生成总量的贡献较大,第3产业对货运生成总量的贡献较小。
The theory of system dynamics is applied to the quantitative analysis of the interaction between regional integrated freight transportation system and economic development. By analyzing the causal relationship of freight supply and demand system, the feedback loop between the system influencing factors such as freight demand, freight gap, economic development, transportation investment and so on road. On the basis of this, a system flow chart is established to build a system dynamics model of interaction between freight transport system and regional economy. Through the simulation test, this paper analyzes the quantitative relationship between the proportion of transportation investment, industrial structure, and the total volume of freight transportation and freight shortfall. The results show that the increase of the proportion of investment in transportation infrastructure can effectively improve the shortage of freight supply capacity, reduce the gap of freight transportation and promote economic growth. The first and second industries make a greater contribution to the total amount of freight transportation, The contribution of total freight generation is small.