An Integrated Multi-Level Early Warning Method for Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides1

来源 :中国地震研究(英文版) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:anglecap
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Rainfall-induced landslides have occurred frequently in Southwest China since the Wenchuan earthquake,resulting in massive loss of people?s life and property.Fortunately,landslide early-wing is one of the most important tools for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation.However,the accumulation of historical data of the landslides induced by rainfall is limited in many remote mountain areas and the stability of the slope is easily affected by human engineering activities and environmental changes,leading to difficulties to accurately realize early wing of landslide hazards by statistical methods.The proposed wing method is divided into rainfall wing component and deformation wing component because the deformation induced by rainfall has the characteristic of hysteretic nature.Rainfall,tilted angle and crack width are chosen as monitoring indexes.Rainfall grade level that contains rainfall intensity and duration information is graded according to the variation of the safety factor calculated by 3-D finite difference numerical simulation method,and then is applied using the strength reduction method and unascertained information theory to obtain the deformation grade level of several monitored points.Finally,based on the system reliability theory,we establish a comprehensive landslide wing level method that provides four early wing levels to reflect the safety factor reductions during and post rainfall events.The application of this method at a landslide site yield generally satisfactory results and provide a new method for performing multi-index and multi-level landslide early wings.
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