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能源保障风险综合指标体系研究是能源保障风险评价的基础工作和重要内容。其中,煤炭和石油作为我国能源供给与消费的主体,其保障风险源于资源、生产、运输、市场和消费五大方面。煤炭和石油保障风险的综合评价实质上,是在对各风险源产生风险可能性展开评估的基础上进行集成和综合,进而形成煤炭和石油保障综合风险指数。本文借鉴有关风险研究的综合评价方法,运用层次分析模型,形成由目标层、准则层、子准则层和指标层等4个层次、共14个指标的保障风险识别与评估指标体系,并构建了煤炭和石油保障综合风险度,以及各风险源风险度的评价模型。根据评价模型计算得到的煤炭和石油保障综合风险度指数(ESCR I),在此基础上对煤炭和石油保障风险进行综合的等级划分,并将其风险可能性划分为极低、低、中、高、极高5个级别。这一研究结果可在煤炭和石油保障风险乃至在整个能源保障风险评估与管理中,为辨识、预测和应对风险提供理论与方法上的参考。
The research on comprehensive index system of energy security risk is the basic work and important content of energy security risk assessment. Among them, coal and oil, as the main body of China’s energy supply and consumption, guarantee their risks from five aspects: resources, production, transportation, market and consumption. The comprehensive assessment of the coal and oil security risks is essentially integrated and integrated based on the assessment of the risks posed by the various risk sources to form the integrated coal and petroleum security risk index. This article draws on the comprehensive evaluation method of risk research, using the AHP model to form an index system of security risk identification and evaluation based on 4 levels, including target level, criterion level, sub-criteria level and indicator level, and builds a Comprehensive risk of coal and oil security, as well as the risk of various risk assessment model. Based on the ESCR I calculated from the evaluation model, the coal and petroleum security risks are classified according to their levels, and their risk potential is divided into extremely low, low, medium, High, high five levels. The results of this study can provide theoretical and methodological references for identifying, forecasting and responding to risks in the coal and oil security risks and even in the entire energy security risk assessment and management.