通过滑坡宏观变形迹象和异常反映迹象分析，运用模糊数学中多级模糊综合评判的理论与方法，建立了黄土滑坡演变阶段两级模糊综合评判模型、评判指标隶属度取值规则表及各因素两级权重分配表，并以秦安县魏店乡刘萍组北山滑坡为例，介绍了综合评判的计算步骤。其评判结果能够真实地反映滑坡的演变阶段，是一种方便、快捷、实用的滑坡中短期预报方法。 Based on the analysis of the signs of macroscopic deformation and the signs of abnormal reflection, a two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the loess landslide evolution stage and the rules of membership value of the loess landslide are established by using the theory and method of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in fuzzy mathematics. Level weight distribution table, and taking the Beishan landslide of Weiping Xiang, Weian Township, Qin’an County as an example, the calculation steps of comprehensive evaluation are introduced. The result of the judgment can truly reflect the evolution stage of the landslide, and is a convenient, fast and practical method for landslide short-term forecasting.