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传统的国债风险评估方法一般只反映历史已发生情况,对未来风险状况凭借主观经验进行判断.利用随机模型建立一种评价国债风险指标超警戒线概率的方法,实现对国债风险的预测和定量评估.根据该方法,参考《马斯特里赫特条约》警戒线,对2012-2020年我国国债风险进行实证研究,结果发现:随着我国财政收入的快速增长,中央政府的偿债能力有所增强,赤字状况稳定,偿付风险进一步降低.但是,值得注意的是我国政府依然有较大的债务存量,如果未来经济发展增速降下来,整个国民经济的债务负担压力可能进一步增加,尤其是普通国民的应债能力可能出现不足.
Traditional methods for assessing the risk of national debt generally only reflect the historical occurrence and judge the future risk with subjective experience.We use the stochastic model to establish a method of evaluating the probability of over-alert of the risk index of national debt so as to realize the prediction and quantitative assessment of the national debt risk According to this method, with reference to the warning line of the “Maastricht Treaty”, an empirical study on the national debt risk in China from 2012 to 2020 shows that with the rapid growth of China’s fiscal revenue, the solvency of the central government However, it is worth noting that our government still has a relatively large stock of debt. If the economic growth rate declines in the future, the pressure on the debt burden of the entire national economy may further increase, in particular, the general National debt should be insufficient capacity.