论文部分内容阅读
利用Eviews 6.0软件,基于协整分析与Granger因果关系检验方法,探讨经济增长和耕地资源数量变化的相互关系和相互作用,以协调耕地保护和经济发展的矛盾。研究结果表明,不同经济增长阶段,我国耕地资源数量变化与经济增长存在长期均衡关系;自1952年以来,我国经济增长和耕地资源数量变化经历了3个阶段,具体表现为:(1)互为因果(1952～1978年),这一阶段农业在国民经济中具有重要地位,耕地的产出在经济增长中占据较大的份额;(2)前者是后者的Granger原因(1978～1992年),此阶段耕地资源投入量顺应了经济增长的要求,发挥了自己应有的作用;(3)后者是前者的Granger原因(1992～2008年),耕地资源作为要素投入支撑了经济的低质量增长,由此产生了重复建设、土地低效利用等问题。因此,关注经济增长和耕地资源数量变化在不同经济发展阶段的均衡关系,发现其中的规律,掌握其中的因果变化趋势,适时调整土地政策以适应经济增长的要求是亟待解决的战略问题。
Using Eviews 6.0 software, based on the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test, the relationship and interaction between economic growth and the change of cultivated land resources quantity are discussed to coordinate the contradiction between cultivated land protection and economic development. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the change of cultivated land resources and economic growth in different stages of economic growth. Since 1952, the changes of the quantity of cultivated land and economic growth in our country have undergone three stages, which are as follows: (1) (1952-1978), agriculture played an important role in the national economy during this period, and the output of arable land occupied a larger share of economic growth. (2) The former was the Granger cause of the latter (1978-1992) (3) The latter is the Granger cause of the former (1992-2008). The input of cultivated land resources as a factor supports the economic low quality Growth, resulting in duplication of construction, the inefficient use of land and other issues. Therefore, it is an urgent strategic problem to pay attention to the equilibrium relationship between economic growth and changes in the quantity of cultivated land resources at different stages of economic development. It is necessary to find out the laws among them, grasp the trend of causal changes among them, and timely adjust the land policies to meet the requirements of economic growth.