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一个经济体现代化进程中的收入分配如何演变是学术界持续争论的问题。本文先从现代化进程中的二元结构转变和制度变迁角度对收入分配的库兹涅茨倒U曲线作理论说明。面对收入分配的库兹涅茨倒U曲线持续矛盾的实证结果,在Ahluwalia开创性地采用跨国数据回归倒U曲线40年后,本文利用世界银行WDI数据库中149个国家和地区1981—2013年的国际横截面和面板数据,使用混合回归、固定效应、差分GMM和系统GMM等多种估计方法对倒U曲线进行再实证,结果显示:最新的数据和方法仍然支持倒U曲线,说明收入分配的库兹涅茨倒U曲线揭示了人类社会现代化进程中收入分配演变的一般趋势。在此基础上,本文分析了倒U曲线在中国的实践,发现中国大致在2011年以后已经进入库兹涅茨拐点区,收入差距会在一定时期内维持稳定。只要在现代化进程中继续加快结构转变和制度完善,收入差距有望逐渐缩小。
How the income distribution in an economy’s modernization process has evolved has been the subject of ongoing debate in academia. In this paper, I first make a theoretical explanation of the Kuznets inverted U-curve of income distribution from the perspective of the dual structure change and institutional change in the process of modernization. Forty years after Ahluwalia pioneered the use of cross-country data regression inverted U-curve in the face of continuing contradictory results in Kuznets’s inverted-U curve in income distribution, this paper uses the World Bank’s WDI database in 149 countries and regions 1981-2013 International cross-section and panel data, we use the multiple regression methods such as mixed regression, fixed effect, differential GMM and system GMM to test the inverted U curve. The results show that the latest data and methods still support the inverse U curve, indicating that income distribution Kuznets inverted U-curve reveals the general trend of the evolution of income distribution in the process of human society’s modernization. On this basis, this paper analyzes the practice of inverted U curve in China and found that China has entered the turning point of Kuznets since about 2011, and the income gap will remain stable for a certain period of time. As long as structural transformation and system improvement continue to be accelerated in the process of modernization, the income gap is expected to gradually narrow.