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本文对南京市自1981年全面实行儿童计划免疫(EPI)后人群接种百日咳疫苗进行了成本——效益分析。首先应用灰色GM(1.1)动态模型对实行计划免疫后的百日咳的发病率进行了累积滚动预测;然后分别计算了实行计划免疫期间人群接种百日咳疫苗所减少的百日咳发病数及所需的成本(投入)与机会效益(产出);最后计算得自实行计划免疫后人群因接种百日咳疫苗而保护了11425人次免于生病,同时接种百日咳疫苗的效益成本之比为16.56。表明实行计划免疫后人群接种百日咳疫苗不仅可以取得巨大的社会效益,而且每进行一个单位的投入就可以获得16.56个单位的产出,其经济效益非常明显。
In this paper, a cost-benefit analysis of vaccination against whooping cough in Nanjing population after the full implementation of EPI in 1981 was conducted. First, the gray GM (1.1) dynamic model was used to predict the incidence of whooping cough after planned immunization by cumulative rolling forecast. Then, the incidence and the cost of pertussis reduced by vaccination against pertussis in the population during the planned immunization were calculated ) And opportunistic benefits (output). Finally, after the planned immunization, 11425 people were protected from illness due to the pertussis vaccine and the benefit-to-cost ratio of the vaccinated pertussis vaccine was 16.56. It shows that the vaccination of pertussis can not only achieve great social benefits after the implementation of the planned immunization, but also obtain the output of 16.56 units for every unit investment, and its economic benefit is very obvious.