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在我国经济虚拟化程度不断提高的背景下,本文通过对传统的货币数量公式进行变形,将虚拟经济货币流通速度引入其中,通过构建非限制性向量自回归模型(unrestricted VAR)来研究我国虚拟经济货币流通速度与通胀之间的动态关系。经实证得出,当前我国的虚拟经济货币流通速度的变化对通胀有着显著的影响,在一定程度上包含了未来通货膨胀的信息,起着货币政策指示器的作用。因此,本文提出央行在制定货币政策时,应重视进入股票市场的资金量,将虚拟经济货币流通速度作为预测通胀的领先指标。
In the context of the ever-increasing degree of economic virtualization in our country, this paper introduces the speed of currency flow in the virtual economy by deforming the traditional monetary quantity formula, and studies the virtual economy of our country by constructing the unrestricted VAR The Dynamic Relationship between Currency Circulation and Inflation. Empirical evidence shows that the current changes in the velocity of the virtual economy in our country have a significant impact on inflation. To a certain extent, it contains information on future inflation and plays the role of a monetary policy indicator. Therefore, this paper proposes that when making monetary policy, the central bank should pay attention to the amount of funds entering the stock market and take the velocity of currency in virtual economy as a leading indicator of inflation.