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为寻求水市场条件下,水权交易的合理均衡水权动态转换价格,根据博弈论和市场经济学原理,结合讨价还价中具有破裂风险和贴现率的特性,建立了水权动态转换价格的讨价还价模型.模型以初始水权价格为基础,考虑影响水权动态转换价格的因素,计算出水权动态转换的基础价格作为讨价还价模型中的最低价,综合外围因素的变化,提出变动最高价区间作为水权动态转换价格的上限,分析相应的均衡水权动态转换价格.模型考虑了贴现率、协商破裂风险等主观概率对水权转化价格的影响,从水权供应方和需求方的自身利益入手,模拟了水权转化中讨价还价的动态过程,为水权交易的实施提供决策支持.
In order to seek a reasonable equilibrium water right under water market conditions, the price of water is dynamically converted. Based on game theory and market economics, the bargaining model of dynamic conversion of water rights is established based on the characteristics of risk of rupture and discount rate in bargaining Based on the initial price of water right and considering the factors affecting the price of dynamic conversion of water right, the model calculates the basic price of dynamic conversion of water right as the lowest price in the bargaining model, and proposes the maximum price range as the right of water The upper bound of the price of dynamic conversion and the corresponding dynamic price of equilibrium water right are analyzed.The model considers the impact of the subjective probability such as discount rate and negotiation risk on the price of water right transfer from the self-interest of water right supplier and demand party, The dynamic process of bargaining in the conversion of water rights provides decision support for the implementation of water rights transactions.