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纽康姆难题制造的选择困境极大地挑战了经典决策原则。为了维护贝叶斯决策理论的规范性,有人怀疑甚至否定其存在的合理性。借助贝叶斯网络和概率理论,可以直观地展示决策者的行动和预言家的预测之间的因果关系,并揭示出选择困境的实质:纽康姆难题中存在两种不相容的概率结构。因此,它的一个恰当消解方案就是:用清晰的语言来描述纽康姆难题的选择情境,使其仅具有单一概率结构。
The choice dilemma of creating Newark’s problems greatly challenged the classical decision-making principles. In order to maintain the normative nature of Bayesian decision theory, some people doubt or even deny the existence of rationality. With Bayesian network and probability theory, the causal relationship between decision maker’s action and prophet’s prediction can be displayed intuitively and revealed the essence of choice dilemma. There are two kinds of incompatible probability structures in the Newcomb problem . Therefore, one of its solutions is to use a clear language to describe the choice of a Newcomb problem so that it has only a single probability structure.