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本文基于联合国UNCOMTRADE数据库,在对中国与周边11国贸易发展现状描述的基础上,以双边2000-2013年贸易面板数据为样本,利用引力模型分析双边贸易的影响因素,进而对双边贸易潜力进行分析测算。双边贸易的影响因素分析结果表明:人均GDP、人口、对外直接投资、经济货币化程度、直接融资情况及是否为WTO成员国等因素对双边贸易影响不显著;贸易结合度指数与区域性因素(上海合作组织)对双边贸易的影响较大;中国与周边国家的贸易量对中国国内市场的需求依赖程度高;汇率波动是影响双边贸易量的最重要因素。双边贸易潜力分析测算结果显示:2013年,中国与周边国家贸易潜力存在地区性差异。中国与哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和阿富汗的贸易潜力巨大;与吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、伊朗、巴基斯坦和蒙古的贸易潜力需进一步开拓;与俄罗斯和印度的贸易潜力基本达到饱和状态。
Based on the UNCTADADE database of China and the current situation of trade development between 11 neighboring countries in China and on the basis of bilateral trade panel data from 2000 to 2013, this paper uses gravity model to analyze the influencing factors of bilateral trade and then analyzes the potential of bilateral trade Calculated. The analysis of the influential factors of bilateral trade shows that: the per capita GDP, population, foreign direct investment, economic monetization, direct financing and whether or not it is a member of WTO have no significant impact on bilateral trade; the trade union index and regional factors Shanghai Cooperation Organization) have a greater impact on bilateral trade. The trade volume between China and its neighboring countries is highly dependent on the demand in China’s domestic market. Fluctuation in exchange rates is the most important factor affecting the volume of bilateral trade. Bilateral trade potential analysis results show that: 2013, there are regional differences in trade potential between China and its neighboring countries. The potential for trade between China and Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan is huge. The potential for trade with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Pakistan and Mongolia needs to be further exploited. The potential for trade with Russia and India has basically reached its full potential.