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近年来,在全球化和亚太区域经济一体化的背景下,两岸经济交流合作快速发展,但是台湾社会舆论对两岸经贸合作的看法日趋多元化。如何科学地确定两岸经济关系对台湾经济增长与波动的实际影响程度,成为一个需要开展实证分析的问题。本文将1996-2013年的两岸经贸数据从台湾对外贸易中分离出来,利用广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解法实证分析两岸经贸对台湾经济增长和波动的实际影响。检验和分析结果发现,两岸经贸往来对台湾GDP增长率具有正面的效应,但其下降及收敛的速度较快,说明这种正面效应的短期性较为明显;同时,台商投资大陆对台湾GDP增长率的贡献度最大,说明台湾内部的投资缺口日益扩大。本研究对于准确理解全球化下两岸经济关系与台湾宏观经济的动态关联有重要意义。
In recent years, under the background of globalization and economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region, cross-Strait economic exchanges and cooperation have enjoyed rapid development. However, Taiwan’s public opinion has increasingly diversified its economic and trade cooperation across the Taiwan Strait. How to scientifically determine the actual impact of cross-Strait economic relations on Taiwan’s economic growth and volatility has become a question that needs to be analyzed empirically. This paper separates the cross-Strait economic and trade data from Taiwan’s foreign trade from 1996 to 2013 and uses the generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition method to analyze the actual impact of cross-Strait economic and trade on Taiwan’s economic growth and fluctuation. The test and analysis show that the cross-Strait economic and trade contacts have a positive effect on the growth rate of Taiwan’s GDP, but their declines and rates of convergence are quick, indicating that the short-term effect of this positive effect is obvious. Meanwhile, the investment by Taiwanese businesspeople in Taiwan’s GDP growth The rate of contribution of the largest, indicating that the growing investment gap within Taiwan. This study is of great significance for an accurate understanding of the dynamic correlation between the economic relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan’s macro-economy under globalization.