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水沙多时间尺度变化的复杂结构分析可为短期及中长期水沙预测提供科学依据。选用松花江哈尔滨控制站1955—2005年年均面降雨量、年均径流和输沙量数据,采用小波多尺度分析方法,分析哈尔滨站主要水文要素的周期及其多时间尺度变化特征。结果表明:哈尔滨站降雨、径流和输沙量序列主周期基本一致且均存在多时间尺度特征。三要素的第一主周期为24.0～26.0 a,第二主周期为17.0～18.0 a,第三主周期为6.0～7.0 a。在7 a时间尺度上,20世纪50—60年代,降雨、径流和输沙量序列的曲线变化基本同步。20世纪70年代,由于大规模人口迁入以及为解决粮食问题的水土资源开发导致了三条曲线发生紊乱,20世纪80年代后黑土地综合治理措施的实施使得三条曲线重新趋于一致。在17 a和26 a时间尺度上,受引水工程、兴建水库等人类活动的影响,三条曲线间的变化出现不同步现象。水沙丰枯变化及奇异点判断与时间尺度有密切关系,离开时间尺度的变化趋势是毫无意义的。
The complicated structure analysis of multi-time scale changes in water and sediment can provide a scientific basis for short-term, mid-long term water and sediment prediction. Based on the data of average annual rainfall, annual average runoff and sediment discharge of Harbin Songhua River Control Station during 1955-2005, wavelet multiscale analysis method was used to analyze the cycle of major hydrological elements and the characteristics of multi-time scales in Harbin. The results show that the main periods of rainfall, runoff and sediment load in Harbin are basically the same and all have multi-time scale features. The first main period of the three elements is 24.0 ~ 26.0 a, the second main period is 17.0 ~ 18.0 a, and the third main period is 6.0 ~ 7.0 a. On the 7 a time scale, the curves of rainfall, runoff and sediment load are basically synchronized in the 1950s and 1960s. In the 1970s, the three curves were disturbed due to the large-scale population movement and the development of water and land resources to solve the grain problems. The implementation of comprehensive measures for the control of black land after the 1980s brought the three curves back into line with each other. On the 17 a and 26 a time scales, due to the human activities like water diversion project and reservoir construction, the changes of the three curves are not synchronized. The change of water and sediment abundance and the singularity judgment are closely related with the time scale, and the trend of change away from the time scale is meaningless.