目的 :探讨黄鼠鼠疫流行的预测方法。方法 :采用逐步回归分析方法 ,分别建立当年和次年的预报模型。结果 :流行强度可分 4级 ,当年拟合率为 93.33% ,次年预报准确率达71.4 3%。结论 :黄鼠鼠疫的流行与黄鼠体染蚤率和黄鼠洞干蚤指数有关 ,上述两因子适用于疫情的预测预报 Objective: To investigate the prediction method of the epidemic of the rat. Methods: Stepwise regression analysis was used to establish the forecast model for the current year and the next year respectively. Results: The epidemic intensity can be divided into 4 grades, the fitting rate was 93.33% in the year and the forecast accuracy in the following year was 71.4 3%. Conclusion: The prevalence of the plague in the squirrel is related to the rate of flea flea infection and the dry flea index of the squirrel cave. The above two factors are suitable for the prediction of the epidemic situation