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针对城市道路交通流复杂的非线性特征,采用基于跳转的ARIMA模型研究交通流的变化规律,以获得城市道路短期交通流的精确预测.引入路口转弯比例矩阵来描述路网的交通流状态.考虑在路网畅通和路网拥堵情况下路口转弯比例矩阵的不同特征,对两种情况分别进行研究.结合路段交通流预测模型,对路网交通流进行预测.仿真算例表明,所提出的预测模型能较好地用于路网交通流预测.
Aiming at the complex nonlinear characteristics of urban road traffic flow, the ARIMA model based on jump is used to study the variation regularity of traffic flow in order to obtain the accurate prediction of urban road short-term traffic flow. Considering the different characteristics of the cornering ratio matrices under the condition of road network congestion and road network congestion, this paper studies the two situations separately.Combining with the road traffic flow prediction model, the road network traffic flow is predicted.The simulation results show that the proposed Prediction model can be better used in road network traffic flow forecasting.