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当前价格上行压力仍然较大。今年3-5月,CPI同比涨幅继续扩大,环比涨幅明显超过历史同期平均水平,环比趋势周期项持续为正且涨幅不断扩大。其中,近期猪肉价格大幅上涨和蔬菜价格反季节上升导致食品价格高位运行;非食品价格上涨范围扩散、涨幅持续扩大,对CPI上涨的贡献度已超过2003-2004年和2006-2008年上二轮物价上涨。展望下半年物价走势,总体看物价稳定的有利因素在逐渐增多。一是在一系列政策措施的作用下,经济运行在库存调整作用下已开始温和放缓;二是通胀的国内货币条件已基本回落到正常区间;三是在全球流动性逐渐收紧、新兴经济体增长降温的影响下,输入型通胀压力可能有所减弱;四是上游价格涨幅放缓效应将逐渐释放。尽管有利物价稳定的因素逐渐增多,但在多种因素影响下,本轮物价上涨的惯性可能较强,一是当前通胀预期虽略有缓和但仍然较强,在这一背景下各种意外冲击对物价走势的干扰作用可能被放大;二是本轮物价上涨伴随明显的成本上升,成本上升具有一定的不可逆性;三是尽管增量货币供给已回落到正常区间,但前两年为应对危机大量投放的流动性存量仍可能成为推动物价上涨的力量;四是如果发达经济体复苏继续放缓,不排除美国货币政策进一步放松导致国际大宗商品价格再度上涨的可能。综合以上对有利和不利因素两方面的分析,下半年物价走势在波动中缓慢回落的可能性较大。
The current price upward pressure is still large. From March to May this year, the CPI growth continued to grow year-on-year, with the chain growth rate clearly exceeding the historical average over the same period of last year. The cycle-to-cycle trend of the CPI continued to be positive and the rate of increase continued to expand. Among them, the recent sharp rise in pork prices and vegetable prices rose seasonally led to high food prices; non-food price range spread, or continued to expand, the contribution of the CPI rose more than 2003-2004 and 2006-2008 on the second round Inflation. Prospects for price movements in the second half of the year, the overall price stability is favorable factors are gradually increasing. First, under the effect of a series of policy measures, the economic operation has started to moderately slow down under the effect of inventory adjustment; second, the domestic monetary conditions of inflation have basically dropped back to the normal range; Third, the liquidity in the world has gradually tightened and the emerging economies Under the influence of body growth and cooling, the input inflationary pressure may be weakened; Fourth, the slowdown in upstream prices will gradually release effect. In spite of the fact that the favorable factors of price stability are gradually increasing, under the influence of many factors, the current round of price inflation may have a stronger inertia. The first is that although the current inflationary expectation is moderate but still moderate, all kinds of unexpected shocks in this context Second, the current round of price increases accompanied by a significant cost increase, the cost increase has a certain irreversibility; Third, although incremental money supply has dropped to the normal range, but the first two years to deal with the crisis The large stock of liquidity stock may still be the force that will push up prices. Fourthly, if the recovery in developed economies continues to slow down, the possibility of further international commodity prices rising will not be ruled out if U.S. monetary policy is further relaxed. Based on the above analysis of both favorable and unfavorable factors, the price trend in the second half of the year is likely to slow down slowly.