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突发事件的发生发展具有高度不确定性,机械的应急管理组织系统缺乏适应性,难以有效应对.基于NK模型,以适应度景观的复杂性和动态性刻画应急管理决策情景的不确定性,研究简单稳态、复杂稳态、简单动态、复杂动态情景下,集权、分权和层级等决策模式的组织系统的适应性特征,以及组织文化、决策者能力、信息流等因素的影响机理.结果表明,简单稳态情景下,应采用分权模式且促进信息共享;复杂稳态情景下,宜保持适度集权;动态情景下,应采用层级模式并加强信息沟通.决策者能力与决策重心相一致,能有效增强组织系统的适应性.当信息流超过决策者能力时,具有合作文化的分权模式适应性较好.研究为中国应急管理体系顶层设计与模式重构提供理论方法.
Emergency occurrence and development has a high degree of uncertainty, mechanical emergency management organization system lacks adaptability, it is difficult to effectively deal with.Based on the NK model, with the complexity and dynamics of fitness landscape depicting the uncertainty of emergency management decision-making scenarios, This paper studies the adaptive characteristics of organizational systems such as centralized, decentralized and hierarchical decision-making models in simple steady state, complex steady state, simple dynamic state and complex dynamic scenarios, as well as the influence mechanism of organizational culture, decision maker ability and information flow. The results show that decentralization mode and information sharing should be adopted in simple steady-state scenarios, moderate centralized power should be adopted in complex steady-state scenarios, and hierarchical mode should be adopted to enhance information communication in dynamic scenarios. Which can effectively enhance the adaptability of the organizational system.When the flow of information exceeds the capacity of decision-makers, the decentralized model with cooperative culture has better adaptability.The research provides a theoretical method for top-level design and mode reconstruction of China’s emergency management system.