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研究表明,充满复杂性和随机性的道路交通事故具有灰色性。文中介绍了灰色预测的理论方法,运用灰色系统理论对交通事故进行分析。通过对交通事故死亡人数原始数据进行处理,得到新的生成数序列,据此建立白化微分方程,给出交通事故中死亡人数的预测模型,用相对残差、级比偏差值和后验差法对模型进行检验。结果表明,模型预测精度高,与实际数据相吻合;并运用该模型预测了之后4年的交通事故总数、死亡人数及受伤人数,以便于交通部门、公安部门和道路设计规划部门有针对性地对交通事故实施治理,减少交通事故发生。
Research shows that road traffic accidents are full of complexity and randomness. In this paper, the theoretical methods of gray prediction are introduced, and the gray system theory is used to analyze the traffic accidents. By processing the original data of traffic accident fatalities and obtaining new generative sequences, the albinism differential equations are established and the prediction model of the number of deaths in traffic accidents is given. The relative residuals, the ratio deviation and the posterior difference method Test the model. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is in good agreement with the actual data. The model is used to predict the total number of traffic accidents, the number of deaths and the number of casualties in the next four years so that traffic department, public security department and road design planning department can be targeted Implement control over traffic accidents and reduce traffic accidents.