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病虫预测预报应验程度的评定,过去常采用成功率,误差及误差百分率等方法。但这些方法多半把预报评定绝对化,其评定结果不是对就是错。同时对于各种不同的病虫种类、各个地区及各种预报期限长短之间,评分标准各不相同。因而,评定结果缺乏可比性。这对客观地评价预测预报质量,以及对不同地区、不同预报对象等的测报质量进行比较分析,总结经验是不利的。为此,我们对预报质量的评定提出了一个初步方法,供商榷。
Pest prediction prediction degree of assessment, in the past often used success rate, error and error percentage and other methods. However, most of these methods make an absolute assessment of the forecast, and the assessment result is not right or wrong. At the same time for a variety of pest species, various regions and various forecast deadlines, the grading standards vary. Therefore, the assessment results are not comparable. It is unfavorable to objectively evaluate the quality of forecasting and forecasting, as well as comparative analysis of the quality of the surveyed reports in different regions and different forecasting objects. To this end, we put forward a preliminary assessment of the quality of the forecast for questioning.