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利用上海市2006—2009年的盗窃案件数据,基于ArcGIS及Excel软件,运用描述性统计、核密度估计等方法,分析了上海市盗窃案件的空间分布、时间分布,以及时空分布规律。研究表明:空间上,上海市盗窃案件密度在中心城区最高,向周边区域衰减,并在远郊某些地区出现孤立热点;时间上,以时、日、月为尺度的盗窃案件分布表现出各自的周期规律;2006—2009年,盗窃案件数持续上升的区域主要是在郊区,持续下降的区域主要是在市区。研究成果能为犯罪预防以及案件侦破提供依据。
Using the data of theft cases in Shanghai from 2006 to 2009, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution, time distribution and temporal and spatial distribution of Shanghai theft cases based on ArcGIS and Excel software using descriptive statistics and kernel density estimation. The research shows that the theft density in Shanghai is the highest in the central urban area and declines to the surrounding area in spatiality, and there are isolated hot spots in some areas in the outer suburbs. In terms of time, the distribution of theft cases on the scale of time, day and month shows their own Periodicity; in 2006-2009, the area where the theft cases continue to rise is mainly in the suburbs, and the areas where the continuous decline is mainly in urban areas. The research results can provide the basis for crime prevention and case detection.