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基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,作者曾在2010年11月就发表文章对昭通孕震区震情进行了分析,并给出了该区域未来强震的震级、震中经纬度、震源深度以及Benioff应变临界触发值.通过与此次2012年9月7号云南昭通发生的MS5.7、5.6级双震进行比较,认为这次双震发生的实际Benioff应变临界触发值与预测值非常接近,表明该理论方法能够可靠地应用于中等强度预震和主震的预测.
Based on the authors’ theory of the brittle fracture in the seismogenic fault multi-locking segment and the related prediction methods, the author published an article in November 2010 on the earthquake situation in the Zhaotong earthquake-hit area, and gave a brief account of the earthquake in the future Magnitude of epicenter, epicentral latitude and longitude, depth of focal epicenter and critical strike of Benioff strain.By comparison with the MS5.7 and MS6.6 double occurrences in Zhaotong, Yunnan, on September 7, 2012, it is considered that the actual Benioff strain criticality The trigger values are very close to the predicted values, indicating that the theoretical method can be applied reliably to medium-intensity pre-shocks and mainshock predictions.