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金属矿山地表岩移受许多因素综合影响,从而导致开采过程中引起的岩移变化表现出复杂性和非线性特征。灰色系统的GM(1,1)模型是一种预测模型,包括数列预测、灾变预测、拓扑预测。矿区地表岩移的实测数据是时间序列数据,通过检验和残差修正,可得到符合该时间序列数据的GM(1,1)预测模型。以某金属矿区最大沉降GPS监测点为例,计算模型参数,建立相应的灰色微分方程模型,并对该模型的计算结果进行检验,对比实测值与模型计算值,发现该模型误差小、精度高,可用其对该地区未来地表岩移的发展变化进行预测。
The surface rock movement of metal mines is affected by many factors, resulting in complex and nonlinear characteristics of the rock mass changes induced during the mining process. The GM (1,1) model of gray system is a kind of prediction model, including sequence prediction, catastrophe prediction and topology prediction. The measured data of surface rock movement in mining area is time-series data. Through the test and residual correction, the GM (1,1) prediction model can be obtained according to the time-series data. Taking the GPS settlement point of the maximum settlement of a metal mine as an example, the parameters of the model were calculated and the corresponding gray differential equation model was established. The calculation results of the model were tested. Comparing the measured value with the calculated value of the model, it was found that the model has small error and high precision , Which can be used to predict the development of the future surface rock movement in the area.