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赤道东太平洋海表温度异常增暖(简称El Ni(?)o现象)产生全球气候异常变化,早已引起人们广泛的注意。因此预测El Ni(?)o现象的发生、发展已成为当前气候预测中的一个重要课题。经过十多年的研究,在预测El Ni(?)o现象方面取得了重要进步,发展了多种动力和统计预测模式。这里值得一提的是Cane和Zebiak的简化海气耦合模式,该模式成功地预报了1986～1987年和1991～1992年的El Ni(?)o现象,但对1993～1995年的El Ni(?)o现象预测是失败的。至今,El Ni(?)o现象发生的预测还没达到令人满意的地步。
Abnormal changes in the sea surface temperature over the equatorial East Pacific Ocean (referred to as El Ni (?) O phenomenon) have caused widespread global climate changes. Therefore, it is an important issue to predict the occurrence and development of El Niño phenomenon in current climate prediction. After more than a decade of research, significant progress has been made in predicting the phenomenon of El Niño, and various power and statistical prediction models have been developed. What is worth mentioning here is the simplified ocean-atmosphere coupling model of Cane and Zebiak, which successfully predicted El Niño from 1986 to 1987 and from 1991 to 1992. However, for El Ni (1993) ?) o Phenomenon prediction is a failure. To date, the prediction of the El Niño phenomenon has not reached a satisfactory level.