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由于滑坡发生时间的不确定性及发生物理过程的非线性,决定了滑坡灾害预测研究的趋势是确定特定区域、特定条件下不稳定斜坡体演变成为滑坡的可能性,以及这些不稳定斜坡体空间分布规律的预测研究。以鄂西恩施市志留系地层潜在不稳定斜坡为研究对象,建立了基于GIS和人工智能神经网络的适用于研究区志留系地层斜坡灾变空间预测的技术路线及方法:从数据采集、空间数据库建立、评价指标体系建立、智能化预测模块设计、斜坡灾变智能化预测系统集成等方面进行了深入研究,得到了研究区内在将来外界营力作用下可能演变成为滑坡的不稳定斜坡区空间的分布情况,并利用遥感数据结合野外实地调查对成果进行了验证。证明了计算机智能化理论与GIS技术结合应用于斜坡灾变空间预测分析的科学性、可行性以及可靠性。
Due to the uncertainty of landslide occurrence time and the non-linearity of physical processes, the trend of landslide disaster prediction research is to determine the specific area, under certain conditions, the possibility of unstable landslides evolving into landslides, and the unstable slope body space Prediction Research on Distribution Law. Taking the potential unstable slope of the Silurian strata in Enshi City of Hubei Province as the research object, the technical route and method for predicting the slope disaster of the Silurian stratigraphic based on GIS and artificial intelligence neural network are established. The establishment of evaluation index system, the design of intelligent forecasting module and the integration of intelligent forecasting system of slope disaster are studied in depth. It is found that in the future, Distribution and using the remote sensing data combined with the field field survey to verify the results. It is proved that the theory of computer intelligence combined with GIS technology can be applied to the scientific, feasibility and reliability of slope disaster prediction and analysis.