论文部分内容阅读
2001年“博士咖啡”在《财经界》第7期的报告中在全国也许是最早地指出。中国经济“一枝独秀”,在世界经济的寒流中“逆风飞扬”。其后。“一枝独秀”和“逆风飞扬”都成为描述中国宏观经济的流行一时的时尚话语。如何看待当前经济增长的升温,经济增长是否“过热”? 我们的看法是,中国经济增长正面临少有的“三大周期”重迭的增长现象,分别是“世界工厂-国际投资与出口周期”,“城市化-基础设施投资周期”以及“新兴消费品-消费周期”。这三大周期的任何一个增长周期的出现,都足以提供中国经济增长的巨大动力。现在三大周期重迭,同时发力于中国经济,将迅速拉动中国经济进入高涨时期,未来几年中国经济增长有望达到年增长9％以上的高位水平。而且暂不会有明显的“过热”现象产生。穿上红舞鞋的中国将跳出最美丽的经济增长舞步!
In 2001, “Doctor’s Coffee” was the earliest nationwide report in the “Financial Times” report. The Chinese economy has been “thriving” and “flying in a headwind” in the cold of the world economy. After that. “Outshining” and “Upwind” have all become fashion words describing the prevalence of China’s macroeconomy. How do we view the warming of the current economic growth and whether the economic growth is “overheated?” Our view is that China’s economic growth is facing a rare phenomenon of “three major cycles” of overlapping growth, namely, “World Factories - International Investment and Export Cycle Urbanization - Infrastructure Investment Cycle, and Emerging Consumer Goods - Consumer Cycles. The emergence of any one of these three major growth cycles is enough to provide a huge impetus to China’s economic growth. At present, the three major cycles are overlapping and at the same time exerting force on China’s economy will rapidly push China’s economy into a period of high growth. In the next few years, its economic growth is expected to reach a high level of more than 9% annual growth. But there will be no obvious ”overheating" phenomenon. Put on the red shoes of China will jump out of the most beautiful economic growth dance!