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本文将ARIMA模型和Monte Carlo计算相结合,建立了一套煤炭消费量及其碳排放量的预测方法。首先基于时序数据建立煤炭消费量的ARIMA模型,然后利用ARIMA模型预测未来的煤炭消费量,最后基于Monte Carlo技术估算碳排放量。结果表明,ARIMA模型可以满足中短期煤炭需求量预测需要,Monte Carlo模拟技术提高了投资和环保决策的可靠性,为能源消费及其碳排放量预测提供了有效手段。
This paper combines the ARIMA model with Monte Carlo calculation to establish a set of coal consumption and carbon emissions forecasting method. First, an ARIMA model of coal consumption is established based on time series data, and then an ARIMA model is used to predict future coal consumption. Finally, carbon emissions are estimated based on Monte Carlo technology. The results show that the ARIMA model can meet the needs of medium and short term coal demand forecasting. The Monte Carlo simulation technology improves the reliability of investment and environmental decision making, and provides an effective measure for energy consumption and carbon emission forecasting.