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以行为金融理论和复杂网络理论为基础,针对股市投资者行为的“模仿”性特征,从投资者自我心理偏好和近邻行为效应两个维度,构建网络近邻择优策略下的股市羊群行为演化模型,理论分析股市羊群行为的演化动力学特征,并进行模拟仿真。研究结果表明:投资者投资行为演化路径受股市网络结构和近邻择优效应影响;近邻择优函数的凹凸性直接关系投资者投资行为动力学均衡态的稳定性;股市网络连通度和异质性对投资者投资行为均衡演变趋势具有重要作用;初始投资行为状态特征对投资者投资行为均衡态影响较小。所建立的模型及分析结论在一定程度上阐述了影响股市投资者投资行为变化的特征要素,解释了股市羊群行为演变的内在性规律,为金融管理部门制定宏观政策起到了一定理论支撑。
Based on behavioral finance theory and complex network theory, aiming at the “imitation ” characteristic of the stock market investors ’behavior, this paper constructs the stock market herd behavior under the network proximate preference strategy from the two dimensions of investor self-psychological preference and neighbor behavior effect Evolutionary model, theoretically analyze the evolutionary dynamics of stock market herd behavior and carry out simulation. The results show that the path of evolution of investor’s investment behavior is affected by the network structure of the stock market and the effect of proximate merit; the convexity and concavity of the nearest-neighbor merit function is directly related to the stability of equilibrium state of investor’s investment behavior dynamics; the connectivity and heterogeneity of stock market network influence the investment The trend of balanced evolution of investment plays an important role. The initial state of investment behavior has little effect on the equilibrium state of investor’s investment behavior. The model and the conclusion of the analysis expound to some extent the characteristic factors that affect the changes of the investors’ behavior in the stock market, explain the inherent law of the herd behavior evolution in the stock market, and give some theoretical support to the financial management department in formulating the macroeconomic policy.