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本文以中美两国内外部经济失衡为视角,从政策层面解释了2001～2007年全球经济失衡为何呈扩大趋势,提出了全球经济失衡加剧的“政策引致假说”。从中美两国角度来分析,全球经济失衡即表现为中美两国的外部经济失衡。结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)分析表明,中国的引进外资政策致使经常账户盈余过多,这种外部经济失衡进一步引起了内部经济失衡。国民收入决定模型(AENI)分析认为,美国为应对其内部经济失衡,采取的减税政策使其外部失衡加剧。为应对全球经济失衡,中国应调整其引进外资的政策,进行出口部门的产业结构升级;美国应适时调整其税收政策,减少财政赤字,削减贸易壁垒,等等。
From the perspective of the internal and external economic imbalances in China and the United States, this paper explains from the policy level why the global economic imbalances have been expanding since 2001-2007, and has proposed a “Policy Induced Hypothesis” that exacerbates the global economic imbalance. From the perspective of China and the United States, the global economic imbalance manifests itself as the external economic imbalance between China and the United States. Structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) analysis shows that China’s policy of introducing foreign capital leads to excessive current account surpluses, which further causes internal economic imbalances. National Income Determinants Model (AENI) analysis argues that in order to cope with its internal economic imbalances, the United States adopted a tax reduction policy to exacerbate its external imbalances. In order to cope with the global economic imbalance, China should adjust its policy of introducing foreign capital and upgrade the industrial structure in the export sector. The United States should adjust its taxation policy in a timely manner, reduce the fiscal deficit, reduce trade barriers and so on.