根据煤低温自然发火实验台测定的温度场变化和传热学理论 ,推导出计算不同温度松散煤体低温氧化放热强度的热平衡法 ;由实验测定的气体浓度变化量 ,推算出不同温度时煤氧复合的耗氧速率、CO和CO2 产生率 ;结合煤氧复合过程的键能变化量 ,得出低温氧化放热强度的键能估算法 ,确定其上限和下限 .为煤自燃特性的定量分析及自然发火预测提供了理论依据 . According to the change of temperature field and heat transfer theory measured by the low-temperature spontaneous combustion experiment bench of coal, the thermal equilibrium method for calculating the low-temperature exothermic oxidation intensity of loose coal at different temperatures is derived. Based on the experimentally measured gas concentration variation, Oxygen recombination rate of oxygen consumption, CO and CO2 generation rate; Combining with the bond energy change in the process of coal oxygen recombination, we can get the bond energy estimation method of low temperature oxidation exothermic strength and determine its upper and lower limits. And natural fire prediction provides a theoretical basis.