该文提出从泥石流形成的两个最基本、最独立的变量──降雨量和松散固体物质储量变化规律入手，先掌握这两个因素的变化规律，再分析二者组合关系，从而确定泥石流未来活动的大致时间间隔、流体性质、规模大小等特点。该方法所需资料和参数容易取得，因而更具普遍适应性。 This paper puts forward that the two most basic and independent variables of debris flow formation ─ ─ rainfall and loose solid material reserves change rules, first grasp the variation of these two factors, and then analyze the combination of the two to determine the future of debris flow The approximate time of activity, the nature of the fluid, the size and other characteristics. The data and parameters needed for this method are readily available and therefore more universally adaptable.