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高额的利润可能是一个不太好警兆!如果你的事业正处于一个高利润的产业,请注意其中所潜伏的问题。原苏联著名的经济学家尼西古拉·康德拉季耶夫曾提出一个康德拉季耶夫周期性理论,他认为世界经济发展受限于每50年一周期的“科技波”。在此周期后20年,产业往往享有巨大的超额利润。而事实上,此超额利润是当初投资的资本回收,表示产业的成长已逐渐停滞,不再需要资本的继续投入。在这段最长不超过20年的高利润过后,继之而来的,常常是突然出现的产业危机,接着就进入一段将近20年的停滞期,等待新的成长性产业出现。康德拉季耶夫曾以此模型预测采取集体化经营的原苏联农业将会出现生产剧降的危机,这项预测事后证实确实是准确的。但康德拉季耶夫却因此项预测惹来杀身之祸,在30年代被斯大林处决了。
High profits may be a bad warning! If your business is in a high-margin industry, please be aware of the underlying problems. The famous Soviet economist Nikicula Kondratiev proposed a Kondratiev cycle theory. He believes that the development of the world economy is limited to the “science and technology wave” every 50 years. In the 20 years after this cycle, industries often enjoy huge excess profits. In fact, this excess profit is the original capital recovery of investment, said the growth of the industry has gradually stagnated, no longer need the continued investment of capital. After this period of not more than 20 years of high profits, it is often followed by a sudden industrial crisis followed by a period of nearly two decades of stagnation waiting for the emergence of a new and growing industry. Kondratiev used this model to predict that the crisis of sharp decline in production in the former Soviet Union would lead to collectivized operations. This forecast proved accurate indeed afterwards. However, Kondratiev was foretold this cause of death disaster, Stalin was executed in the 1930s.