After the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, Syria appeared to be the next target of Western powers. They have declared sanctions against Syria and publicly demanded Syrian President Bashar al-Assad step down. This Middle Eastern country now faces increased political risks, because previously the West only pressured al-Assad to conduct reforms, not to resign.
As Western powers mounted economic and financial pressure on Syria follow- ing regime changes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, Syria’s future looks unclear. The Arab League’s decision to suspend Syria’s membership in November has added to the country’s uncertainties.
Getting worse
Since anti-government protests broke out in March, the wrestling between the Syrian Government and the opposition has persisted. A big turn came on July 31 when government troops reentered cities with large protests such as Hama, causing widespread casualties. According to UN statistics, more than 2,700 were killed from mid-March to late August, and several thousand were arrested. The UN Security Council released a statement on August 3, condemning the Syrian Government’s military strike against protesters. Four days later, some Arab nations also criticized the Syrian Government’s action, which dealt a heavy blow to the alAssad regime.
After Gaddafi’s political fate was sealed in August, NATO members pressed much harder on Syria. U.S. and European leaders said al-Assad’s regime had lost legitimacy. Under pressure both home and abroad, the Syrian Government found its situation less and less optimistic.
Syria’s main opposition groups announced the establishment of the Syrian National Council on October 2 in Istanbul, Turkey, aiming to overthrow the al-Assad regime. They declared that the council’s establishment marked the unity of all opposition groups in Syria. They planned to form a coalition to replace al-Assad’s government and get international recognition. The establishment of the council showed the Syrian opposition was beginning to duplicate the Libyan opposition’s successful model and make concerted efforts to topple the al-Assad regime.
The European Commission decided to impose an oil embargo against Syria on September 2, banning the import of crude oil and oil products from Syria and restraining financing and insurance businesses related to Syria’s oil exports. This was the first time for European countries to impose sanctions against Syria’s oil industry to cut the Syrian Government’s funding.
Based on the 2010 statistics, the embargo will involve about $4.5 billion in crude oil exports. Since Syria doesn’t have extensive oil reserves, the embargo is more significant politically than economically. Syria’s daily oil output is about 380,000 barrels. It exports 150,000 barrels of oil every day, 95 percent of which is sold to Europe. Syria made a profit of $500 million through oil trade in 2010.
Well connected
The reason the Syrian Government cracked down on protesters is clear: It must beat the opposition to remain in power. But its iron fist could become an excuse for military intervention by NATO and the United States. In fact, Western nations launched military attacks against Gaddafi after he suppressed demonstrators with military force. So, will Syria suffer the same fate?
Syria’s geopolitical situation and its relationships with other Middle Eastern nations are quite different from those of Libya. If the Middle East is a giant chessboard, Syria is a piece that can influence the whole game because of its close relationships with neighboring nations. Therefore, if Western nations open fire on Syria, they will take big risks.
Syria has close political and military relations with Russia and Iran. Russia has a long-term naval base at Syria’s Tartus port, and maintains an intimate relationship with Syria. On October 4, Russia and China vetoed a draft resolution presented by France, Germany, Portugal and Britain meant to
condemn the “continued grave and systematic human rights violations by the Syrian authorities.”
Most Syrians are Sunni Muslims, but the ruling group belongs to the Alawite minority, a Shiite sect. Iran, which is a Shiite nation, thus has a close relationship with Syria. If the al-Assad regime is overthrown, Syrian Sunnis will come into power, which will break the Iran-led “Shiite crescent.” This could trigger a multilateral war in the region. Also, the regional balance of power will be tilted.
In addition, Syria plays a central role in the anti-U.S. bloc in the Middle East, which consists of Syria, Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas movement. A power shift in Syria will lead to a serious domino effect on regional security.
Syria also keeps traditional links with European nations. For example, both the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership in the 1990s and the France-led Mediterranean Union plan in 2008 tied Europe’s economic interests together with Syria. The European Investment Bank so far has invested $1.3 billion in infrastructure projects in Syria. Moreover, European nations like France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands have been Syria’s major oil clients for a long time. The EU had hoped al-Assad would play the role of a stabilizer in the Middle East, and declaring sanctions against Syria was a painful decision for the EU.
For all their sanctions, Western countries still want to avoid actual military actions against Syria. Washington’s attitude is the key. The Barack Obama administration wishes to settle the Syria problem through sanctions instead of military force. President Obama has issued an order to freeze the Syrian Government’s assets in the United States, ban Americans from investing or running businesses in Syria, and forbid U.S. companies to import oil products from Syria.
The United States and France will have presidential elections next year. And Western countries usually don’t launch wars during presidential election years. Based on this, Syria will be safe for a period of time. Although the Arab world has disagreements on the Syria problem and some Arab countries have chosen to put more pressure on Syria, their moves are unlikely to have a major impact on Syria’s overall situation. As long as Western countries don’t change their stances on the Syria problem, Syria will be free from military intervention in the foreseeable future.
But the al-Assad regime still faces internal risks. If the West decides to interfere militarily, a civil war will erupt in Syria between the Alawite minority and the Sunnis. The Alawite minority, which now controls the country’s government, military and security forces, accounts for 30 percent of Syria’s total population, while the Sunnis take up 70 percent.
Without external military intervention, al-Assad will be able to put the country’s situation under control. If external military intervention occurs, Syria will likely be the next Libya. But before that happens, alAssad still has time to carry out reforms at home to ameliorate the crisis.