介绍了卡尔曼滤波法的基本原理,以白莲崖碾压混凝土双曲拱坝为例,选取坝顶垂直位移为分析对象,建立了卡尔曼滤波模型,进行实例计算,预测大坝变形。计算结果表明,卡尔曼滤波模型能充分考虑温度、库水位和时效影响对坝体变形的影响,预测精度高,具有工程应用价值。 The basic principle of Kalman filter method is introduced. Taking Bailiancao double - curvature arch dam as an example, the vertical displacement of the dam top is selected as the analysis object, a Kalman filter model is established, and the example calculation is carried out to predict the dam deformation. The calculation results show that the Kalman filter model can fully consider the effect of temperature, reservoir water level and aging on the deformation of the dam. The prediction accuracy is high and it has engineering application value.