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以我国东部地区11个省份1996—2012年的产业能源碳排放和经济增长数据为数据源,采用Tapio脱钩模型分别对4个时间段(1996—2000,2001—2005,2006—2010,2010—2012年)经济增长与碳排放的脱钩关系进行定量分析;运用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)对影响碳排放变化的主要因素进行分解,分别从产业结构、碳密度、能源结构、能源强度、经济强度、人口效应等影响因子与碳脱钩的内在关系进行了分析.结果表明:1)北京、天津、上海、福建4个省份在2010—2012年均呈现出强脱钩状态,其脱钩指数ε分别为-0.150 3,-1.373 8,-0.214 0和-0.006 0,其他时间段多数省份ε在0~0.8之间,呈弱脱钩状态;2)2001—2005年碳排放增长速度最快,其平均增速达75.36%,较全国平均增速高5.78%,其中增长速度最快的是山东省,为140.53%;3)2006—2010年能源强度对碳排放减少了58 034.94万t,其中山东贡献最大,减少了10 259.76万t;4)3个产业结构比重的变化反映了碳排放的变化,第二产业比重的下降和第三产业比重的增长,将带来碳排放的减少,促进经济发展与碳排放脱钩.
Based on the data of industrial carbon emission and economic growth in 11 provinces in the eastern part of our country from 1996 to 2012, the Tapio decoupling model was used to analyze the data of four time periods (1996-2000, 2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2010-2012 Year) economic growth and carbon emissions; the logarithmic average Derivative Index (LMDI) was used to decompose the major factors that affect the changes of carbon emissions from industrial structure, carbon density, energy structure, energy intensity, Economic strength, population effect, etc. The results show that: 1) Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Fujian provinces all showed strong decoupling status in 2010-2012, and the decoupling index ε -0.150 3, -1.373 8, -0.214 0 and -0.006 0 in most provinces during the rest of the year. Ε is between 0 and 0.8 in other periods, showing a weak decoupling status. 2) The carbon emission increased fastest from 2001 to 2005, with an average of A growth rate of 75.36%, higher than the national average growth rate of 5.78%, of which the fastest growth rate is 140.53% in Shandong Province; 3) 2006-2010 energy intensity of carbon emission reduction of 58,034.94 million tons, of which Shandong contribution The largest, a decrease of 10 2597600 t; 4) 3 Changes in the proportion of industry structure reflects the changes in carbon emissions, and decrease the proportion of tertiary industry increased proportion of secondary industry will bring to reduce carbon emissions and promote economic growth and carbon emissions decoupling.