科学的进步必然要求科学研究方法的更新。从亚里士多德的《工具篇》到弗朗西斯·培根的《新工具》,反映了科学史上两次大的科学方法的变革。十九世纪末二十世纪初以来,现代科学革命正推动着第三次科学方法变革的展开。控制论、系统论和信息论等崭新方法的问世和日益广泛应用,是这次变革的主要标志;对传统方法的刷新则是这次变革的重要内容。在当今的科学方法论研究中,“三论”等新方法已为人们普遍重视,但对后者问津的人尚不多见。这对于科学的进步是不利的。为此,本文试图着眼于后者,粗略地探讨假说方法的历史演变尤其是在现代科学研究中出现的新特点,借以引 The progress of science necessarily requires the updating of scientific research methods. From Aristotle's “Tools” to Francis Bacon's “New Tool,” reflects two major changes in the scientific method in the history of science. Since the late nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth century, the revolution in modern science is driving the third revolution in scientific method. The emergence and application of new methods such as cybernetics, system theory and information theory are the main symbols of this change. The refreshment of traditional methods is an important part of this change. In the research of scientific methodology today, new methods such as “Three Treatises” have been paid attention to by people, but the people who are interested in the latter are still rare. This is detrimental to the progress of science. To this end, this article attempts to focus on the latter, roughly discussing the historical evolution of hypothesis methods, especially in the new features of modern scientific research, in order to lead