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要估计一个地区或地震带未来几十年至一、二百年的地震危险性,目前许多学者都认为应该把该地区的地质资料如活动断裂的运动速率与规模、历史地震资料和仪器记录的地震资料结合起来运用,以综合评定这一地区的地震活动性。为此,一些学者提出了几种计算地震平均重复周期的方法。但所有这些方法均需要估计某些不同的参数,而这些参数的估计往往具有主观性、不确定性。如何掌握最后结果的不确定性的大小,这是地震危险性分析中尚未解决的一个重要问题。本文提出了函数不确定性的一种模糊数学处理
To estimate the seismic risk in a region or a seismic zone in the next few decades to one or two hundred years, many scholars at present think that the geological data of the region, such as the moving velocity and scale of active faults, the historical seismic data and the recorded Seismic data are used in combination to comprehensively assess seismicity in this area. To this end, some scholars have proposed several methods of calculating the average earthquake repetition cycle. However, all of these methods need to estimate some different parameters, and the estimation of these parameters is often subjective and uncertain. How to grasp the size of the uncertainty of the final result is an unsolved problem in the seismic risk analysis. This paper presents a fuzzy mathematical approach to the uncertainty of functions