本文就是要建立分析这些隐性的或然的财政负债的理论框架 ,并讨论对付这些财政风险的国际公认的方法的有效程度。关于或然的政府财政负债的分析框架 ,主要是引入“财政风险矩阵”;关于对付隐性的财政风险的方法 ,我们主要介绍“财政对冲矩阵”(Fiscal Hedge Matrix)与相关的预算制度改革。 This article is to establish a theoretical framework for analyzing these implicit contingent financial liabilities and to discuss the effectiveness of internationally accepted approaches to counter these fiscal risks. The framework for analyzing contingent government fiscal liabilities is mainly the introduction of a “fiscal risk matrix.” In terms of ways to deal with hidden fiscal risks, we focus on the Fiscal Hedge Matrix and related budget system reforms.