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自2003年以来,“能源帝国”、“能源超级大国”和“能源外交”这三个互为一体的命题,成为刻画俄罗斯能源地位和能源政策的流行关键词。可以从国际关系中的国家行为和国际经济活动中的企业行为两个层面出发,从概念和实证两个角度,揭示上述命题中概念和假定的局限性。“能源帝国”和“能源超级大国”的命题都忽略了俄罗斯在控制国际能源市场方面的重大局限。而实证证据初步显示,“能源外交”的命题也仅得到部分的支持。尤其是能源企业作为能源外交的执行者,与俄罗斯国家之间存在着多重利益冲突。而俄不同能源产业之间、俄能源部门对外投资的地域分布,也都存在明显差别。跨国比较的结果也显示,俄罗斯国家能源企业和其他国家的同类企业相比,其海外扩张有效性仅属于中游。这些证据都对俄“能源外交”的有效性提出了质疑。
Since 2003, the three propositions of “Energy Empire”, “Energy Superpower” and “Energy Diplomacy” have become the popular keywords to describe Russia’s energy status and energy policy. From the two levels of state behavior in international relations and the behavior of enterprises in international economic activities, we can reveal the limitations of concepts and assumptions in the above proposition from both conceptual and empirical perspectives. The propositions of “energy empires” and “energy superpowers” ignore Russia’s major limitations in controlling the international energy market. However, preliminary evidence shows that the proposition of “energy diplomacy” is only partially supported. In particular, energy companies, as the implementers of energy diplomacy, have multiple conflicts of interest with Russia. However, there are also significant differences in the geographical distribution of overseas investment between Russia’s different energy industries and between the Russian energy sector. The results of cross-border comparison also show that compared with similar enterprises in other countries, the Russian national energy enterprises are only effective in expanding overseas. These evidence all challenged the validity of Russia’s “energy diplomacy.”