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很多历史学家都承认,两次世界大战的悲惨经历足以令欧洲人掌握好和平与政治之间的平衡,即使是在冷战最高潮的时刻,作为东西方对峙的重要前沿,欧洲也没有爆发过任何大规模武装冲突。这一方面是因为对垒的政治家们权衡利弊后的相互妥协与自找台阶,另一方面也是因为两极格局带来的相对稳定。但当1989年东欧巨变发生后,一切都变了,所有积攒的矛盾瞬时像火山一样喷涌而出,而火山口毫无疑问又是欧洲的火药桶——巴尔干半岛,核心则是被欧洲和平特使卡尔·比尔德特(Carl Bildt)称为“欧洲的越南”的南斯拉夫。
Many historians have acknowledged that the tragic experience of the two world wars made it sufficient for Europeans to have a balance between peace and politics. Even at the height of the Cold War, as an important forefront of confrontation between the East and the West, there was no such thing as Europe Any large-scale armed conflict. This is because the opposing politicians weigh the mutual compromise and self-seeking steps after pros and cons on the one hand, and the relative stability brought by the bipolar pattern on the other. But after the great changes in East Europe in 1989, everything changed. All the accumulated contradictions instantly gushed out like volcanoes. The crater was undoubtedly the European barrel of powder - the Balkans. At the core was the special envoy of the European Peace Envoy Carl Bildt called Yugoslavia “the Vietnam of Europe.”