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货币政策传导机制一直是宏观经济学理论的一大重要内容,也是当前央行货币政策宏观调控的一项重要研究课题,在金融脱媒等金融结构变化的背景下,货币政策传导机制也并非之前那么简单地可以侧重于某一种渠道,诸如货币政策传导机制中的利率渠道研究逐渐为国内学者和监管者关注。众所周知,央行的货币政策工具三大法宝之公开市场操作针对的就是货币市场,而在货币市场利率体系中,又存在着诸多准基准利率,各自在一定程度上起着基准利率的作用。利率是纲,纲举目张。利率市场化下,选择哪个利率作为一个基准利率,能够具有金融市场权威定价权及担任金融信息的指示器,即作为央行政策利率的“信使”及时将货币政策意图传递给金融市场利率,一直是学术界和央行关注的话题。利率市场化改革也曾被我党制定为一项战略性目标。2004年开始了对银行存款利率上浮封顶,贷款利率下浮封底的利差保护,目前利率市场化的呼声越来越高。要使利率市场化稳步推进并最终实现,具有货币政策“二传手”功能的货币市场上基准利率亟需完善。同时金融市场间协调发展,商业银行资金定价、宏观调控方式转变,都倒逼着这一基准利率的地位夯实。因此本文将我国货币市场基准利率选择问题纳入到货币政策利率传导机制框架中去。在此背景下,本文旨在研究货币市场利率体系中SHIBOR、银行间国债回购利率、短期国债收益率等各个市场利率的属性及优缺点,找到比较适合充当基准利率的(SHIBOR),通过实证考察SHIBOR自身期限结构等的效果及SHIBOR与其他货币市场基准利率的传导关系是否通畅,SHIBOR是否真的具备了基准利率的潜质进而能够不负众望在金融市场上成为具有绝对话语权的货币市场基准利率,SHIBOR未来有何改进的地方,如何更好的培育完善它,如何提高人民银行货币政策的SHIBOR渠道在我国宏观经济运行中的效力,成为本文研究的目的。
The transmission mechanism of monetary policy has always been an important part of macroeconomic theory and an important research subject of the current central bank’s macro-control of monetary policy. In the context of changes in the financial structure such as financial disintermediation, the monetary transmission mechanism is not the case before Simply focus on a certain channel, such as interest rate channel research in monetary policy transmission mechanism gradually for domestic scholars and regulators attention. As we all know, the open market manipulation of the three magic weapons of the central bank’s monetary policy instruments is aimed at the money market. However, in the money market interest rate system, there are many quasi-benchmark interest rates, each of which play a role of the benchmark interest rate to some extent. Interest rate is the outline, outline project directory. Under the marketization of interest rates, which interest rate to choose as a benchmark interest rate can have the authority of the financial market pricing and serve as an indicator of financial information, that is, as the central bank’s interest rate “Messenger ” in a timely manner to transfer monetary policy intentions to the financial market interest rates, It has always been a topic of concern to academics and central banks. Market-oriented interest rate reform has also been our party formulated as a strategic goal. In 2004, the floating interest rate of bank deposits began to rise and the interest rate of loans levied floating back to protect the bottom of the spread, the current interest rate liberalization is getting louder and louder. In order to make the marketization of interest rates steady and finally realized, the benchmark interest rate in the money market that has the function of monetary policy “setter ” needs to be consummated. At the same time, the coordinated development of financial markets, the pricing of commercial banks, and the change of macroeconomic regulation and control all force the position of this benchmark interest rate compaction. Therefore, this article will be the choice of China’s monetary market benchmark interest rate into the framework of the monetary policy rate transmission mechanism. Against this background, this paper aims to study the properties, advantages and disadvantages of various market interest rates such as SHIBOR, inter-bank bond repurchase interest rates and short-term government bond yields in the money market interest rate system, and to find SHIBOR, which is more suitable for the benchmark interest rate. Examining the effect of SHIBOR’s own term structure and the unobstructed conduction between SHIBOR and the benchmark interest rates of other money markets, does SHIBOR really have the potential of the benchmark interest rate and can live up to expectations in the financial markets as the benchmark interest rate in the money market with absolute speaking power, Where SHIBOR is going to improve in the future, how to better nurture it and how to improve the effectiveness of the SHIBOR channel of the People’s Bank’s monetary policy in China’s macroeconomic operation has become the purpose of this study.