玉米是我国的三大粮食作物之一,种植面积居粮食作物之首。玉米价格的波动对于畜牧养殖乃至居民消费价格指数(consumer price index,CPI)都会产生重要的影响。尽管不乏研究玉米供需以及价格问题的学术论文,但专题讨论玉米价格季节波动的文章还未见发表。理论上,玉米价格的季节波动应呈“V”字型,即随着下半年玉米陆续收获上市,供给出现过剩,价格逐渐走低;第二年上半年,种植户的玉米已基本出货完毕,供给趋紧,价格不断上涨。但是纵观2000年以来的玉米月度价格序列,季节波动的规律 Corn is one of the three major grain crops in China, with the planting area ranking first in the food crops. The volatility of corn prices has a major impact on livestock husbandry and even the consumer price index (CPI). Although there is no shortage of academic papers on corn supply and demand as well as price issues, no articles on seasonal fluctuations in corn prices have been published yet. In theory, the seasonal fluctuation of corn price should be in the form of “V”, that is, with the second half of the corn market after another harvest, the supply surplus appears and the price gradually goes down. In the first half of the second year, the corn farmers have basically shipped Finished, tight supply, prices continue to rise. However, a review of the monthly series of corn prices since 2000, the law of seasonal fluctuations