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当前经济形势扑朔迷离,政策退出一度成为社会各界讨论的焦点,迪拜世界债务危机、中国地方政府融资平台困境和欧洲债务危机又似乎给全球复苏进程带来了不确定性。从中波周期的视角来看,全球经济已经在新的均衡中进行价格体系重建,酝酿全面复苏的动能;而从短波周期来看,2009年全球经历了快速的去库存和强劲的补库存,2010年将在震荡中重建更高库存水平。无论全球经济还是中国经济,在2010年都将呈现出典型的过渡期特征:政策的推动力日渐趋弱,实际的和金融的力量正在缓慢恢复,危机和刺激留下的后遗症不断挑战复苏信号,但无妨复苏信心缓慢重建的进程。中国正在跨越刘易斯拐点和库兹涅茨转折点,经济调结构的关键在于推动主动城市化的进程。
The current economic situation is complicated and confusing. The withdrawal of the policy has been the focus of discussion in all sectors of society. The debt crisis in Dubai, the plight of the local government financing platform in China and the debt crisis in Europe appear to have brought uncertainty to the global recovery process. From the perspective of the CMB cycle, the global economy has rebuilt the pricing system in the new equilibrium to brew the kinetic energy of a full recovery. In the shortwave cycle, the global experienced rapid inventory removal and strong replenishment in 2009, Year will be rebuilt in the turmoil higher inventory levels. Both the global economy and the Chinese economy will show typical transitional characteristics in 2010: the impetus of policies is getting weaker, the actual and financial forces are slowly recovering, and the crises and the aftermath of the stimulus are constantly challenging the signal of recovery. However, it is possible to revive the process of slow reconstruction of confidence. China is crossing the turning point of Lewis and Kuznets. The key to economic restructuring lies in promoting the process of active urbanization.