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目前,我国城镇化进程不断加快,城镇的防灾减灾问题越来越受到社会的重视,应急装备需求也日益增强。如何建立科学有效的应急装备需求预测模型,对防治城镇灾害具有重要的意义。基于概率论的方法研究了城镇灾害应急装备需求预测模型,并讨论了在不同环境因子下,应急装备需求量的计算。利用仿真软件MATLAB对应急装备需求进行了计算仿真。仿真结果表明:该需求模型可以较好地对城镇灾害应急装备需求进行预测。
At present, the process of urbanization in our country is accelerating constantly. The problems of disaster prevention and reduction in cities and towns are increasingly valued by the society, and the demand for emergency equipment is also growing. How to establish a scientific and effective emergency equipment demand forecasting model is of great significance in preventing and treating urban disasters. Based on the method of probability theory, the urban disaster emergency equipment demand forecasting model is studied, and the calculation of emergency equipment demand under different environmental factors is discussed. The simulation software MATLAB was used to calculate and simulate the emergency equipment requirements. The simulation results show that this demand model can predict the demand of urban disaster emergency equipment well.