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洞庭湖流域是我国洪涝灾害多发地区之一。从孕灾环境脆弱性、致灾因子危险性的自然属性和承灾体易损性的社会属性两个方面入手,建立了反映农业水灾风险的指标体系,在此基础上利用GIS方法、层次分析法和因子叠加法,对洞庭湖流域农业水灾风险进行了综合评价和分析。结果表明:该流域农业水灾高风险地区集中分布在长沙和岳阳市;常德、益阳、株洲、永州属于较高风险区;娄底、湘潭、衡阳、郴州则属于中风险区;邵阳和张家界则属于较低风险区;湘西自治州和怀化市属于低风险区。而孕灾环境脆弱性、致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性的地域组合差异是导致各地州市农业水灾风险度大小不均的症结所在。
Dongting Lake basin is one of the flood prone areas in our country. From the two aspects of the natural vulnerability of disaster-prone environment, the danger of disaster-causing factor and the social attribute of vulnerability of disaster-bearing body, an indicator system reflecting the risk of agricultural flood was established. Based on this, GIS method and AHP Law and factor superposition method, carried out a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the risk of agricultural flood in the watershed of Dongting Lake. The results showed that the high risk areas of agricultural floods concentrated in Changsha and Yueyang; the areas of Changde, Yiyang, Zhuzhou and Yongzhou belonged to the higher risk areas; Loudi, Xiangtan, Hengyang and Chenzhou belonged to the risk areas; Shaoyang and Zhangjiajie belonged Low-risk areas; Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture and Huaihua City belong to the low risk area. However, the geographical combination of the environmental vulnerability of disaster-prone area, the risk of disaster-causing factors and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies is the crux of the uneven size of agricultural flood risks in various prefectures and cities.