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需求结构作为经济结构的重要组成部分,其变动必然会对经济产生一定的影响。需求结构中,消费变量相对比较稳定,对长期经济运行起到一个“稳定器”的作用;投资在中短期对经济增长的作用效果比较明显。1979年以来,我国需求结构变动经历了7轮周期,且第7轮周期和经济波动的最后一轮周期几乎重合,这一现象说明我国需求结构变动与经济波动之间存在同步性或是协动性。通过格兰杰因果关系检验,发现我国需求结构变动与经济波动之间存在非对称的双向因果关系。通过构建向量自回归模型(VAR)进行脉冲响应函数分析进一步证明了这一结论。
Demand structure as an important part of the economic structure, the change will inevitably have some impact on the economy. In the demand structure, the consumption variables are relatively stable and play a “stabilizer” role in long-term economic operation. The effect of investment on economic growth in the short and medium term is obvious. Since 1979, China’s demand structure has undergone seven rounds of changes, and the last round of cycles of the seventh round coincides with the last round of economic fluctuations. This shows that there is a synchronization or linkage between changes in demand structure and economic fluctuations in our country Sex. Through Granger causality test, we find that there is an asymmetrical two-way causal relationship between the changes in China’s demand structure and economic fluctuations. This conclusion is further confirmed by constructing a vector auto-regressive model (VAR) for impulse response function analysis.