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随着国民经济的快速发展,我国出现了电力需求十分旺盛的势头,全国用电量在2002年增长11.7%的基础上,2003年又增长了15.4%。在电力市场疲软时期进行预测的“十五”用电水平偏低,电力建设因此放慢是导致目前许多地区出现严重缺电局面的重要原因之一。电力需求分析预测工作至关重要,预测数比实际数偏小,会导致缺电,影响国民经济的持续健康发展:预测数比实际数偏大,会导致电力过剩。在目前电力需求超常规增长,并且年际间变化强烈和地区间差别加大的情况下,电力需求预测应在坚持以往分析内容和预测方法的同时,特别注意加深对下列一些影响因素的分析。
With the rapid development of the national economy, China has witnessed a very strong demand for electricity. With the national electricity consumption increasing by 11.7% in 2002, it has also increased by 15.4% in 2003. In the weak period of the electricity market, the “15” electricity consumption is forecast to be low, and the slowdown of power construction is therefore one of the important reasons for the current situation of severe power shortage in many areas. Power demand analysis and forecasting work is crucial. The forecast number is smaller than the actual number, which will lead to power shortage and affect the sustained and healthy development of the national economy. The predicted number is larger than the actual number and will lead to surplus power. With the current extraordinary growth in electricity demand and the strong inter-annual variation and the widening disparity between regions, the forecast of electricity demand should pay special attention to deepen the analysis of some of the following factors while insisting on the previous analysis contents and forecast methods.